Predictive power of institutional flow signals in forecasting 13F filings.

By isolating institutional from retail flows, our model successfully predicted net 13F direction for S&P 500 stocks—proving that institutional flows contain actionable alpha while retail flows do not.

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Study highlights:

• 71% Directional Accuracy on High-Confidence Predictions – The model achieved 65.5% accuracy across the entire S&P 500 for predicting institutional 13F flow direction, rising to 71.1% accuracy with 99% confidence when focusing on the 222 stocks with strongest signals
• 35.4% Information Coefficient with Institutional Flow – The predictive signal delivered a robust 35.4% IC at 88% confidence across the S&P 500, demonstrating strong correlation between predicted and actual institutional flows while remaining effective across all sectors and market caps
• Clear Separation Between Institutional and Retail Behavior – Institutional flows showed strong predictive power while retail flows performed no better than random chance, confirming the platform's ability to isolate actionable institutional signals from noise and making LSEG ETF/Equity Flow a versatile fundamental ingredient for equity strategies